2014 Congressional Election Information


Most information regarding elections is noise. I will try to curate the signal


Keep This in mind:

To summarize: Democrats face an uphill battle for House control, but the levee built by gerrymandering is not so high as you have been led to believe. A popular-vote win of 4-5 points might be enough. In terms of opinion polls, which usually overestimate Democratic turnout, if the generic ballot is at D+7% next October, it might be time for Republicans to start looking for high ground.

And this:

Does the generic opinion predict actual votes? To answer that, we have to quantify Delta, the 12-month difference between opinion and the actual national vote.

The average movement is 3.4% toward Republicans, with a standard deviation of 4.0%. ... I note that the drift over the final two months of the campaign, from September to November, should be smaller.

As You Analyze this:

I feel that this may also be relevant. High point for approval was ~43% in December 2013. It will be interesting to see if that is exceeded before congressional election.

Yeah! Princeton consortium coming through with the tracker:

Key Senate Races:1 Currently, the majority of seats are safe and break 46 Dem and 46 Rep. This is subject to change.

These are the remaining races that whose outcome is currently uncertain. Dems Need to win 4 to maintain 50 seats in the senate.

Current Party RCP Poll Likely Outcome
Dem AK (R Primary still in prog) D
Dem AR (D 45.5: R 44.5) R
Dem CO (D 43.5: R 41.8) D
Rep GA (July 22 Primary) R
Dem IA (D 43.7: R 44.0) R
Rep KY (D 44.3: R 45.8) R
Dem LA (complicated) R
Dem NC (D 45.3: R 42.3) D (6/30)
---- ------------------- -----
Sum: 3 D - 5 R
Final Senate: 49 D - 51 R

Looking Ahead to 2016

placeholder to add predictive model for presidential race:

abramowitz paper: http://www.apsanet.org/imgtest/psoct08abramowitz.pdf

how votamatic implements:

The rest of the data are in the table below. The dependent variable is the incumbent party candidate’s share of the major-party vote.

Incumbent Incumbent Incumbent Q1 GDP Q2 GDP net approval party 2+ party cand. Year growth growth rating, June terms? vote share 2012 2.0 1.3 -0.8 0 – 2008 -1.8 1.3 -37.0 1 46.3 2004 2.7 2.6 -0.5 0 51.2 2000 1.1 8.0 19.5 1 50.3 1996 2.8 7.1 15.5 0 54.7 1992 4.5 4.3 -18.0 1 46.5 1988 2.1 5.2 10.0 1 53.9 1984 8.0 7.1 20.0 0 59.2 1980 1.3 -7.9 -21.7 0 44.7 1976 9.4 3.0 5.0 1 48.9 1972 7.3 9.8 26.0 0 61.8 1968 8.5 7.0 -5.0 1 49.6 1964 9.3 4.7 60.3 0 61.3 1960 9.3 -1.9 37.0 1 49.9 1956 -1.8 3.2 53.5 0 57.8 1952 4.1 0.4 -27.0 1 44.5 1948 6.5 7.5 -6.0 1 52.4 A multiple linear regression model fitted to the 16 elections from 1948-2008 indicates that

Incumbent vote share = 51.5 + 0.6 (Q2 growth) + 0.1 (Net approval) – 4.3 (Two+ terms).